Shelflife wrote: Mike Adamson reffing on Sat

Good Luck!

Mike Adamson reffing on Sat

We should have a decent idea of the potential opponent by Friday night. If Treviso and Edinburgh both win at home, the Italians should end up second as they'll surely account for Zebre on the last day. If Ulster win, you'd imagine it'll be them as they're at home to disinterested Leinster. Munster and Edinburgh wins would leave it a bit more up in the air.

Still all right. TBH including the home advantage it's 50/50

Connacht installed as five point favourites with the bookies. Another two or three points would have done my nerves some good.

TBF we won't be 5th. Maybe away play-off at worse but not 5th, I can't see Ospreys winning in Cardiff

La Rochelle's table position doesn't look too secure but the bookies seem to fancy them. They are a much shorter price than Paris/Toulon/Bordeaux in both final winner and regular season winner markets. Some of the others have some tough games left but their run-in isn't exactly a cake-walk either. It could come down to the Atlantic Derby against Bordeaux on the last day. Hopefully we won't care by then!

I have just realised a gaping hole in my earlier theory about the play-off. They can't use the same system they proposed last year with the better fourth placed team going through automatically and the fifth placed team getting the play-off spot. The playoff is scheduled for the same weekend as the Pro14 semis but the Top14 regular season doesn't finish until the weekend after, so at the time of the playoff, we won't know whether La Rochelle are top 6 or not. So you'd imagine the only solution would be to play the playoff as normal and if all works out well, the play-off loser qualifies as well.
The upshot of that is that there could be no back-door in for fifth place.

All in all, it's probably best if we just win, if nothing else it will make me shut up and stop confusing everyone ...

Gloucester beat Northampton away.
Sale is likely to finish in the Top6 and ChampionsCup IMO

We become the most heartful La Rochelle supporters. Except if we win in the Sportsground ; we wouldn't care

pinky wrote: Any kind of defeat we're probably fourth but in danger of fifth .

That's where we slightly disagree, what about my scenario above, rather pessemistic but still with a good outcome, after a 1-4?
(all depends on your definition of danger, of course, there would be danger but we'd still be favorite for the home play-off IMO)

Bazzo wrote:

pinky wrote: 4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.

Maybe I'm not getting it but wouldn't 4-0(or 4-1 or even 4-2) make us uncatchable to both ospreys and Cardiff? 60 points with either on a max of 54 with 1 game to play

Yes, any win of any sort and we're guaranteed third. Any kind of defeat we're probably fourth but in danger of fifth (though we could still possibly rescue third with a win in Limerick). I guess I should have said 0-4 or 1-4 above.
Of course even finishing fifth could get us into a playoff if the Pro14 gets an eighth place in the Champions Cup.

A win is done deal for 3rd, wholesale changes vs Munster and go to the Ravenhill (or Treviso) the week after.

Bazzo wrote:

pinky wrote: 4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.

Maybe I'm not getting it but wouldn't 4-0(or 4-1 or even 4-2) make us uncatchable to both ospreys and Cardiff? 60 points with either on a max of 54 with 1 game to play

We're talking about a scenario of a Cardiff win with us taking a LBP.
Which as I pointed just above, still make us in contention for a home European Play-off

pinky wrote: 4-0 could have us in trouble, even 4-1 if Cardiff get an LBP on the last day and we ship a heavy defeat in Thomond. Our points difference was looking good after the Munster game but only adding the bare minimum to it in Parma makes it catchable.

Maybe I'm not getting it but wouldn't 4-0(or 4-1 or even 4-2) make us uncatchable to both ospreys and Cardiff? 60 points with either on a max of 54 with 1 game to play

connachta wrote: Confirmed from Andy Friend, fingers crossed "Tom Farrell got a bit of a poke in the eye. We think he is going to be fine, we just need to see."


we just need to see. Will he?

Just the laugh I needed after y/day game, thanks Connachta.

phatguerilla wrote: There was a couple of games that Friend and players described as season defining a few months ago, particularly Cardiff which we proceeded to lose, I hope they have figured out what was missing in those earlier games and put it right.

Yesterday we did. Good for the mental health of the squad. Winning not brillantly, but hanging on and having what we need in the end

Look at a bad scenario, and the good conclusion even there

Cardff 4 points, us 1

Ospreys 9 or 10 points and Cardiff still get a BP

Not the least point away in Munster.

Edinburgh managing to get 6 in 2 games

then still you have

Ospreys 58-59
Connacht 57 (+80 at worse before taking Munster loss into account)
Cardiff 57 ( + 62 in the end at best, + 7 vs us -1 vs Ospreys)
Edinburgh 57 ( + 40 at best before taking Ulster win into account)


So, it would need we fall by 18 points in Thomond, 1 week after their Champions Cup semi and before their Pro14 final phases. Doubt they'll give us such a beating.
So 4th it'd be

Then to be the "worst" 4th, we'd have to have a scenario where Embra win vs Ulster + our loss vs Munster close a 40 points difference. Could happen but unlikely too.
So home European play-off vs Edinbourg it'd be