ah sweet Jesus

... and Montpellier, balls!

We have Toulouse and Gloucester!
Not the worst but a bit repetitive ...

Good start!
Lyon or Gloucester.

Ideally we want Lyon to be drawn with Exeter, then we get that pool.

I know it's not exactly typical prime-time viewing but I've always wondered about the Wednesday lunchtime scheduling. Like I would happily use this as an excuse to go for a pint if it was on later.

The most important thing is to avoid Montpellier, as they will be the toughest in Pot 4 (though would be a nice spot to visit).
After that we really want Lyon. Bookies have them at 200-1, joint last with Treviso, and even though that does seem a bit harsh on them, they are by some margin the most desirable of the potential Pot 1 and 2 teams. With Lyon and Treviso/Ospreys/Bath/Sale we would have an outside chance of getting out of the pool.
Ideally we want Glasgow to be the runner-up that misses out on Pot 1, that way we are guaranteed to get either Lyon or Gloucester 50/50 and we avoid the nightmare scenario of getting Saracens+Clermont or Toulouse+Exeter. If Glasgow (and therefore Ulster) are in Pot 2 then we don't even wait for our pot to be drawn, whichever pool has an English and a French team in it is ours.

13.20 tomorrow.

Anyone but Saracens as far as I'm concerned from pool one, for many reasons, all good teams in pot 2 but I think Gloucester could do a job on us so wouldn't mind avoiding them too.

I make the odds of drawing individual teams to be:

35% Gloucester, Lyon.
31% Saracens, Toulouse.
27% Exeter, Clermont
20% Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale
7% Northampton, La Rochelle.
0% Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Glasgow, Quins, Racing.

More interestingly, if we ignore pot 4 (because we can draw any of them) and look at who we can draw from the top two pots, there are only a handful of likely pairings:

Toulouse and Gloucester 23%
Saracens and Lyon 23%
Clermont and Gloucester 12%
Exeter and Lyon 12%
All other pairings 30% in total (Toulouse & Exeter, Toulouse & N'hampton, Clermont & Exeter, Clermont & N'hampton, Saracens & Clermont, Saracens & La Rochelle, Exeter & La Rochelle).

Pretty much all as bad as one another, with perhaps the pairings that end "...and Lyon" being slightly kinder.

Premiership with 3 sides in Pot 2:
Pot 1: Toulouse, Saracens, Clermont
Pot 2: Chiefs, Lyon, Gloucester, Saints
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Pro 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:
Pot 1: Toulouse, Saracens, Chiefs, Clermont
Pot 2: Lyon, Gloucester
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Top 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:
Pot 1: Toulouse, Saracens, Chiefs
Pot 2: Clermont, Lyon, Gloucester, La Rochelle
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Premiership with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Saracens, T14 No 2
Pot 2: Chiefs, Lyon, Gloucester, Saints
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Pro 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Saracens, Chiefs, T14 No 2
Pot 2: Lyon, Gloucester
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Top 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Saracens, Chiefs
Pot 2: T14 No 2, Lyon, Gloucester, La Rochelle
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Premiership with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Saracens, T14 No 2
Pot 2: Chiefs, T14 No 3, Gloucester, Saints
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Pro 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Saracens, Chiefs
Pot 2: T14 No 3, Gloucester
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Top 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Saracens, Chiefs
Pot 2: T14 No 2, T14 No 3, Gloucester, T14 No 4
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, Montpellier, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Upset for La Rochelle means Racing will go into our pot as long as Lyon win at home tomorrow. Otherwise they go in Pot 4 and will round out what will doubtless be dubbed the pool of death/sharks/blood/spilt milk (delete as appropriate).

I just spotted this from l last year's draw rules :

EPCR wrote: The clubs are divided into four tiers based on their status as championship
winners and/or on their qualification positions in their league tables. This
will be done by a draw in advance of the main pool draw. The Champions
Cup winners go automatically into Tier 1

Based on that, if Exeter beat Saracens tomorrow, they will both go into Tier 1, so Gloucester would definitely be the only English team in Tier 2, along with three from either the Top 14 or Pro 14 (and one from the other). I'm not sure if that would be a good thing or not. Probably good as the best result would be having three Pro14 teams in Tier 2 so we get either Gloucester or (probably) Lyon, who wouldn't be too bad. No matter - I'll be shouting for Exeter anyways.
I could also be interpreting that wrong of course ...

EDIT: Now I've thought about it, it's probably more likely that Saracens will automatically be considered the top-ranked Premiership team regardless of the result today. We'll see how it goes.

If the barrages go with home advantage, La Rochelle would end up fifth, and in Pot 3, so we would avoid them, while Montpellier would be in Pot 4 and would be the team everyone hopes not to get from that pot.
Bookies are giving Montpellier a decent chance of beating Lyon away though (they are +4). That would put Lyon 5th overall so we couldn't get them. I'd like to avoid that as I want Lyon.

Premiership with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Prem No 1, T14 No 2
Pot 2: Prem No 2, T14 No 3, Gloucester, Saints
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, T14 No 6, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Pro 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Prem No 1, Prem No 2
Pot 2: T14 No 3, Gloucester
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, T14 No 6, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Top 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Prem No 1, Prem No 2
Pot 2: T14 No 2, T14 No 3, Gloucester, T14 No 4
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, T14 No 6, Bath, Ospreys, Sale

Premiership with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Prem No 1, T14 No 2
Pot 2: Prem No 2, T14 No 3, Prem No 3, Prem No 4
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, T14 No 6, Bath, Ospreys, Bonus Side

Pro 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Prem No 1, Prem No 2
Pot 2: T14 No 3, Prem No 3
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, T14 No 6, Bath, Ospreys, Bonus Side

Top 14 with 3 sides in Pot 2:

Pot 1: T14 No 1, Prem No 1, Prem No 2
Pot 2: T14 No 2, T14 No 3, Prem No 3, T14 No 4
Pot 3: Connacht
Pot 4: Benetton, T14 No 6, Bath, Ospreys, Bonus Side

cabaiste wrote:

pinky wrote:

connemara man wrote:

You'd have to wonder though why they wouldn't send the Welsh officials up to Scotstoun, and give the Swansea gig to Johnny Lacy et al.. , but we digress.

I just figured that they were giving Lacey a bit of a swansong in the semi-final given that he is due to finish up this year.

I've no basis for that though, so I could be way off the mark! :lol:

His last game as a professional ref according to well-wishers on Twitter, so I'd say you're bang on the money.