Not sure if this is a big change in tack by the EPCR and Pro14 or somebody got their wires crossed:
www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/european-...for-ulster-1.3480292
Pau and Gloucester still a long way from qualifying via their leagues so they are still in line to claim the last spot.
The idea that if the Pro14 got an extra place there would still be a playoff involving the next team down never occurred to me.
I'm working on the assumption this is nonsense, but you'd never know with EPCR ...

Edit: From Pro14: www.pro14rugby.org/2018/05/01/how-pro14-...-if-awarded-by-epcr/
So the playoff IS happening regardless, though the remainder of that article is nonsense. They still need Pau and Gloucester to get into Top 6.
If I was Ospreys I would not be happy about having to have a playoff. Especially an away one. And if Connacht had gotten ahead of Ospreys I would definitely not be happy.

Had we won the QF, what would have the situation been?
Mixed as Pau (our non-domestically-qualified rivals) have an away SF (but nearly home final) and we would have had 2 away games.

If both SF games have been lost, Euro play-off between Pau and Connacht. Hard to hope an away win, we would have relied on a fair and lucky home draw

So not much to regret, then...

Pau just lost at home to Agen, which is the kind of thing I would have been upset about a couple of weeks ago. Luckily enough, I have already reached peak disappointment for the season and consequently took the defeat in my stride.
Pau can now quite likely end up outside the Top 6. They should be OK to qualify anyway as Gloucester won, Newcastle beat Sale and Leicester lost so Pau would be left as the only unqualified semi-finalist.
But it's bad news for Ospreys as they will now need to win that away playoff, which now looks to be in Ravenhill after the job Edinburgh did on Scarlets.
EDIT: Though events in the RDS tonight might mean that's not so clearcut!
In other news, Brive look to be in serious relegation trouble after losing to Oyonnax ...

pinky wrote: ..........
In summary: Friday night is the last chance saloon. If we beat them, it's on. Denying them a LBP would be fabulous. Defeat means we start looking at flights to Heidelberg.

Heidelberg (Germany), another country to mark off the Connacht World tour.

We are sadly now a speed bump in the road for all the strong teams - we put it up them...for a while....with some passion....put inevitably cannot get the job done ourselves. Hope the recruitment is better than over the past couple of years since Murrayfield becuase man, oh man, do we need a stronger 10.

salmson wrote: I'm resigned to trips to Heidelberg, London (Quins) and Clermont-Ferrand in the Challenge Cup next year.

Looks like there will be some serious names in it next year. Clermont, Bath, Ulster, Quins, Saints, Lyon, Castres, Stade, Sharks, the likely return of Perpignan (dunno how good they'll be but I fancy a trip to the Med).

I'm resigned to trips to Heidelberg, London (Quins) and Clermont-Ferrand in the Challenge Cup next year.

Recalculated sat-nav directions following wrong turn on Saturday ...

1. Get ahead of Blues (automatic qualification)
Still theoretically possible but need them to lose all their games while we win all ours so basically a write-off. If we had been a little closer to them, it would have gotten interesting about now as their Challenge Cup progression gives them some interesting selection decisions to make for the two games in SA. But as it stands, all they need are two bonus points somewhere.

2. Stay ahead of Ospreys and win an away playoff
They're one point ahead and have a game in hand. If we lose in Swansea, it's all over. If we win, and beat Leinster at home, that gets us to 42. Ospreys could then win one of their three away trips (Ulster/Zebre/Blues) and still be behind, though any more than two bonus points for them from those 4 games would have us in trouble. Looking a bit bleak but still doable.
Treviso now looking very likely for the home playoff.

[strike]3. We win the Challenge Cup and an already qualified team wins the Champions Cup
4. We lose the Challenge Cup final to an already qualified team and an already qualified team wins the Champions Cup
5. We lose the Challenge Cup semi-final, both the Challenge Cup finalists and the Champions Cup winner are already qualified, and we win a playoff against the other losing semi-finalist.
6. We lose the Challenge Cup semi-final and the three other Challenge Cup semi-finalists and the Champions Cup winner are already qualified.[/strike]

7. The Harry Houdini
Connacht finish behind Cardiff but stay ahead of Ospreys.
We lose the seventh placed playoff[strike] and the QF against Gloucester.[/strike]
Gloucester and the three other semi finalists qualify via their league.
A Pro 14 team wins the Champions Cup.

The non-Connacht bits of this are all reasonably likely. The four Challenge Cup semi-finalists are all in qualifying positions in their leagues and a Pro 14 Champions Cup winner is odds-on. So it's possible that the playoff may be a moot point as both teams may be through (though they may not know that until afterwards).

In summary: Friday night is the last chance saloon. If we beat them, it's on. Denying them a LBP would be fabulous. Defeat means we start looking at flights to Heidelberg.

Well Clermont lost, which would've been great news if that kind of thing mattered anymore

Thanks Salmson

Tall Paul wrote: Has there been a draw made for the semi final yet in the challenge cup?
If not will the draw be?

No draw, done on seedings and whether you had a home Q/F. We're away to the winner of Newcastle v. Brive.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_Eu..._Cup#Knock-out_stage

Has there been a draw made for the semi final yet in the challenge cup?
If not will the draw be?

I see. Yeah I'm kinda easy either way on the Newcastle/Pau games. I'd be tempted to take the middle ground of a Brive/Pau combo. That way we get a more winnable semi while retaining a chance of qualifying if we lose the final. Not sure I'd be any more confident playing a Stade side who had beaten Pau away and have nothing else going for their season than a potentially barrage-focused Pau.
Can't see much beyond Pau/Newcastle wins though.
Of course it all changes if we lose to Gloucester. Then it's Newcastle/Pau/Munster all the way to try and get an extra spot for the Pro14.

Edinburgh are home and hosed through the league, Cardiff aren't quite (yet), would worry Ospreys might catch them on the last day...

Which is kind of the opposite logic (qualification) to Stade and Brive (winning), I grant you.

salmson wrote: Rooting for Stade, Edinburgh, Brive, Leinster, Scarlets, Toulon & Racing this w/e*. Can't be supporting our southern brethren Pinky at our (possible) expense.

*And Connacht, obviously,

Stade and Brive I get. It's a tough one. Newcastle/Pau victories give us a better shot at qualification but less chance of the trophy, so I applaud your ambition on this front. Leinster, Scarlets and Racing are no-brainers.
But dazzle us with your Edinburgh logic. Wouldn't Blues have a better chance of taking out Pau or Stade at home than Edinburgh would in France?

Rooting for Stade, Edinburgh, Brive, Leinster, Scarlets, Toulon & Racing this w/e*. Can't be supporting our southern brethren Pinky at our (possible) expense.

*And Connacht, obviously,